[SMM Chromium Weekly Review] Weak Demand and Increased Supply Lead to Insufficient Confidence in the Chromium Market

On November 14, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,000-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was 8,050-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,200-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day; for imported iron, South African high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Kazakhstan high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), also flat MoM from the previous trading day.

This week, the chrome ore market operated in the doldrums, with a significant negative impact from the year-end off-season. Downstream purchase willingness was average, with most holding a cautious wait-and-see attitude, leading to weak demand for ferrochrome. With sluggish transactions and retail prices no longer having an advantage over long-term contracts, some producers opted to continue offering discounts, with retail quotations adjusted to operate within the 8,000-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content) range. On the supply side, ferrochrome producers, maintaining certain profit margins, were actively producing, with production fluctuating at highs. Considering the release of additional capacity, there is still potential for further increases, gradually adding to the supply pressure on ferrochrome, which has put some downward pressure on prices. Cost side, coke completed its third round of price increase, slightly raising the smelting cost for ferrochrome, but the continuous decline in the main raw material, chrome ore, led to a loosening of ferrochrome smelting costs, weakening the support for prices. Overall, the ferrochrome market saw low trading activity, with limited real transactions. It is expected that in the short term, the market will mainly remain in the doldrums, awaiting guidance from the next round of tender prices from mainstream steel mills.

In terms of raw materials, on November 14, 2025, the spot price of 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port was 53.5-54.5 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was quoted at 48.5-49 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was quoted at 55-55.5 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was quoted at 56-57 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was quoted at 58-60 yuan/mtu, and 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate ore was quoted at 64-65 yuan/mtu, down 0.25 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day; in futures, 40-42% South African powder remained at 279-282 $/mt.

This week, the chrome ore market continued its previous trend of gradual decline, with the issue of supply-demand imbalance becoming increasingly prominent, putting prices under pressure. From the buyer's perspective, the downturn in the stainless steel market affected the procurement of chrome, which in turn impacted the ore end, with ferrochrome producers purchasing slowly, focusing on essential needs, and engaging in price-cutting negotiations. On the seller's side, with spot chrome ore prices approaching or even below cost, there was little willingness to cut prices further, leading to a standoff. However, with the continuous increase in chrome ore supply and a concentrated arrival at ports, this week, the chrome ore inventory at ports rose by 5.8% to 3.685 million mt, further disrupting the supply-demand balance and eroding the confidence of market participants, with a pessimistic sentiment gradually spreading. In the futures market, South African fine ore mines for the most-traded contract had no new offers this week, maintaining the price at $282/mt. Under bearish expectations, domestic traders showed moderate purchase willingness, resulting in difficult transactions. The support from high ferrochrome production schedules on chrome ore gradually faded. In the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to remain weak, awaiting guidance from the new round of steel tenders and overseas market offers.